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Novi Pazar vs Radnicki 1923 — Super Liga 2026

Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Radnicki 1923
Radnicki 1923
9/24/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 1Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Novi Pazar43%
×Draw26%
Radnicki 192331%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novi Pazar
1.48
Radnicki 1923
1.22

Novi Pazar creates 21% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 95 away

creates per match

Novi Pazar
1.44
Radnicki 1923
1.14

allows per match

Novi Pazar
1.30
Radnicki 1923
1.52

finishing

Novi Pazar+0.00on par
Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novi Pazar ↓

Radnicki 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Novi Pazar or draw
69%
Novi Pazar or Radnicki 1923
74%
Draw or Radnicki 1923
57%

Winning margin

Novi Pazar wins by 2+
21%
Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Novi Pazar 1+ goals
77%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
43%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
19%
Radnicki 1923 1+ goals
70%
Radnicki 1923 2+ goals
34%
Radnicki 1923 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
58%
Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.30 · 112 matches

Radnicki 1923 away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novi Pazar attack 1.44 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.14 + Novi Pazar defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Novi Pazar scores more
43%
level
26%
Radnicki 1923 scores more
31%

Novi Pazar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novi Pazar vs Radnicki 1923

Novi Pazar and Radnicki 1923 drew 1-1 in Super Liga on September 24, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Novi Pazar.