Radnicki 1923 1–3 IMT Novi Beograd: Result & Stats

Radnicki 1923

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

IMT Novi Beograd

M. Ristić 21'

V. Radočaj 64', 19'

V. Lučić 38'

11/30/2024

Super Liga · Round 17Stadion Čika Dača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Radnicki 192344%

×Draw25%

IMT Novi Beograd31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnicki 1923Expected goals in this matchIMT Novi Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.24

Radnicki 1923

1.52

IMT Novi Beograd

1.24

Radnicki 1923 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 55 away

1.44

creates per match

1.20

1.28

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Radnicki 1923

1.44

IMT Novi Beograd

1.20

allows per match

Radnicki 1923

1.28

IMT Novi Beograd

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki 1923 ↓

IMT Novi Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Radnicki 1923 or draw

69%

Radnicki 1923 or IMT Novi Beograd

75%

Draw or IMT Novi Beograd

56%

Winning margin

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+

22%

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals

78%

Radnicki 1923 2+ goals

45%

Radnicki 1923 3+ goals

20%

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

71%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

35%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)

58%

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki 1923 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 93 matches

IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.44 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.52

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.20 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Radnicki 1923 scores more

44%

level

25%

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

31%

Radnicki 1923 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Radnicki 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

V. Radočaj

IMT Novi Beograd · M

9.2

Match Events

2'

19'

21'

32'

36'

38'

46'

A. Janković← M. Gluščević

46'

I. Zulfić← V. Novičić

62'

63'

64'

64'

67'

N. Bukumira← B. Mirčetić

67'

L. Ben Hassine← L. Stankovski

75'

U. Bonnet← M. Jović

81'

Y. Court← L. Luković

90+4'

Aleksandar Lutovac

90'

A. Stevanović← V. Radočaj

90+1'

S. Bastaja← V. Lučić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RadnickiIMT

Overview

68%Possession32%

14Total Shots11

6Corners4

13Fouls19

Shots

14Total Shots11

3On Target8

6Off Target2

5Blocked1

10Inside Box9

4Outside Box2

Passing

68%Possession32%

470Total Passes221

374Accurate Passes133

80%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls19

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides5