Radnicki 1923 2–4 FK Partizan: Result & Stats

Radnicki 1923

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

FK Partizan

12/7/2025

Super Liga · Round 18Cika Daca Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Radnicki 192329%

×Draw25%

FK Partizan46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnicki 1923Expected goals in this matchFK Partizan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.59

Radnicki 1923

1.21

FK Partizan

1.59

FK Partizan creates 31% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 142 away

1.44

creates per match

1.90

1.28

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Radnicki 1923

1.44

FK Partizan

1.90

allows per match

Radnicki 1923

1.28

FK Partizan

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

FK Partizan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki 1923 ↓

FK Partizan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Radnicki 1923 or draw

54%

Radnicki 1923 or FK Partizan

75%

Draw or FK Partizan

71%

Winning margin

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+

12%

FK Partizan wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals

70%

Radnicki 1923 2+ goals

34%

Radnicki 1923 3+ goals

12%

FK Partizan 1+ goals

80%

FK Partizan 2+ goals

47%

FK Partizan 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)

39%

FK Partizan (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki 1923 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 93 matches

FK Partizan away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.97 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.44 + FK Partizan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.21

FK Partizan attack 1.90 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Radnicki 1923 scores more

29%

level

25%

FK Partizan scores more

46%

FK Partizan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FK Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff