FK Partizan 3–1 Radnicki 1923: Result & Stats

FK Partizan

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Radnicki 1923

4/27/2025

Super Liga · Championship Round - 3Stadion Partizana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

FK Partizan59%

×Draw22%

Radnicki 192319%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK PartizanExpected goals in this matchRadnicki 1923

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.96

FK Partizan

1.88

Radnicki 1923

0.96

FK Partizan creates 96% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 94 away

2.23

creates per match

1.15

0.78

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

FK Partizan

2.23

Radnicki 1923

1.15

allows per match

FK Partizan

0.78

Radnicki 1923

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Partizan+0.00on par

Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Partizan ↓

Radnicki 1923 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FK Partizan or draw

81%

FK Partizan or Radnicki 1923

78%

Draw or Radnicki 1923

41%

Winning margin

FK Partizan wins by 2+

34%

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

FK Partizan 1+ goals

85%

FK Partizan 2+ goals

56%

FK Partizan 3+ goals

29%

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals

62%

Radnicki 1923 2+ goals

25%

Radnicki 1923 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FK Partizan (draw refunded)

76%

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Partizan at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.78 · 148 matches

Radnicki 1923 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.52 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Partizan attack 2.23 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.88

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.15 + FK Partizan defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

FK Partizan scores more

59%

level

22%

Radnicki 1923 scores more

19%

FK Partizan at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FK Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff