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Radnicki 1923 vs FK Crvena Zvezda — Super Liga 2026

Radnicki 1923
Radnicki 1923
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
9/1/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 7Stadion FK Metalac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Radnicki 192322%
×Draw22%
FK Crvena Zvezda56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki 1923
1.10
FK Crvena Zvezda
1.90

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 73% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 142 away

creates per match

Radnicki 1923
1.44
FK Crvena Zvezda
2.53

allows per match

Radnicki 1923
1.28
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.76

finishing

Radnicki 1923+0.00on par
FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki 1923 ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Radnicki 1923 or draw
44%
Radnicki 1923 or FK Crvena Zvezda
78%
Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda
78%

Winning margin

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+
8%
FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals
67%
Radnicki 1923 2+ goals
30%
Radnicki 1923 3+ goals
10%
FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
85%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
56%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)
28%
FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki 1923 at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.28 · 93 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.44 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.10

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.53 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Radnicki 1923 scores more
22%
level
22%
FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
56%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Radnicki 1923 0–1 FK Crvena Zvezda

FK Crvena Zvezda beat Radnicki 1923 1-0 in Super Liga on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Metalac in Gornji Milanovac.