FK Crvena Zvezda 2–1 Radnicki 1923: Result & Stats

FK Crvena Zvezda

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Radnicki 1923

9/28/2025

Super Liga · Round 10Stadion Rajko Mit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda68%

×Draw19%

Radnicki 192313%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Crvena ZvezdaExpected goals in this matchRadnicki 1923

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.86

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.21

Radnicki 1923

0.86

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 157% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 94 away

2.91

creates per match

1.15

0.57

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.91

Radnicki 1923

1.15

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

0.57

Radnicki 1923

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

Radnicki 1923 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw

87%

FK Crvena Zvezda or Radnicki 1923

81%

Draw or Radnicki 1923

32%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

44%

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

89%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

65%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

38%

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals

58%

Radnicki 1923 2+ goals

21%

Radnicki 1923 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

84%

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.57 · 149 matches

Radnicki 1923 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.52 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.91 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 2.21

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.15 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

68%

level

19%

Radnicki 1923 scores more

13%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki 1923

FK Crvena Zvezda beat Radnicki 1923 2-1 in Super Liga on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mit in Belgrade.

FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki 1923 — Super Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: FK Crvena Zvezda vs Radnicki 1923