Radnicki 1923 2–0 Dinamo Vranje: Result & Stats

Radnicki 1923

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Vranje

10/3/2020

Prva Liga · Round 9Stadion Čika Dača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Radnicki 192353%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Vranje21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Radnicki 1923Expected goals in this matchDinamo Vranje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.82

Radnicki 1923

1.49

Dinamo Vranje

0.82

Radnicki 1923 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 33 away

1.59

creates per match

0.88

0.76

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Radnicki 1923

1.59

Dinamo Vranje

0.88

allows per match

Radnicki 1923

0.76

Dinamo Vranje

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki 1923 ↓

Dinamo Vranje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Radnicki 1923 or draw

79%

Radnicki 1923 or Dinamo Vranje

74%

Draw or Dinamo Vranje

47%

Winning margin

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+

27%

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals

77%

Radnicki 1923 2+ goals

44%

Radnicki 1923 3+ goals

19%

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

56%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

20%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)

72%

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki 1923 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 51 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.59 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.49

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.88 + Radnicki 1923 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Radnicki 1923 scores more

53%

level

26%

Dinamo Vranje scores more

21%

Radnicki 1923 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Radnicki 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff