Dinamo Vranje 1–0 Radnicki 1923: Result & Stats

Dinamo Vranje

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Radnicki 1923

D. Nedeljković 22'

11/9/2019

Prva Liga · Round 18Stadion YUMCO

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Dinamo Vranje40%

×Draw28%

Radnicki 192332%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dinamo VranjeExpected goals in this matchRadnicki 1923

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.10

Dinamo Vranje

1.26

Radnicki 1923

1.10

Dinamo Vranje creates 15% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 51 away

1.50

creates per match

0.86

1.34

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje

1.50

Radnicki 1923

0.86

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje

1.34

Radnicki 1923

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

Radnicki 1923 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw

68%

Dinamo Vranje or Radnicki 1923

72%

Draw or Radnicki 1923

60%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+

18%

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals

72%

Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals

36%

Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals

13%

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals

67%

Radnicki 1923 2+ goals

30%

Radnicki 1923 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)

55%

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

Radnicki 1923 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 1.50 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.26

Radnicki 1923 attack 0.86 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more

40%

level

28%

Radnicki 1923 scores more

32%

Dinamo Vranje at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Vranje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

D. Nedeljković

62'

V. Popović← Đ. Maksimović

62'

O. Ilić← V. Ćirović

69'

M. Ilić← E. Dolovac

81'

M. Petrović← V. Spasić

82'

M. Milenković← U. Aleksijević

84'

M. Antić← V. Radočaj

Dinamo

Radnicki

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: R. Jovanović

69'▲M. Ilić←▼E. Dolovac

81'▲M. Petrović←▼V. Spasić

84'▲M. Antić←▼V. Radočaj

Dinamo Vranje substitutes

IlićPetrovićAntić

Manager: D. Milisavljević

62'▲V. Popović←▼Đ. Maksimović

62'▲O. Ilić←▼V. Ćirović

82'▲M. Milenković←▼U. Aleksijević

Radnicki 1923 substitutes

PopovićIlićMilenković

Prva Liga: Dinamo Vranje 1–0 Radnicki 1923

Dinamo Vranje beat Radnicki 1923 1-0 in Prva Liga on November 9, 2019.

Goals: D. Nedeljković (22').

The match was played at Stadion YUMCO in Vranje.

Dinamo Vranje vs Radnicki 1923 — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Prva Liga: Dinamo Vranje 1–0 Radnicki 1923