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Radnicki 1923 vs Backa — Prva Liga 2018

Radnicki 1923
Radnicki 1923
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Backa
Backa
11/13/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 19Stadion Čika Dača

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Radnicki 192354%
×Draw27%
Backa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radnicki 1923
1.44
Backa
0.75

Radnicki 1923 creates 92% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Radnicki 1923
1.59
Backa
0.74

allows per match

Radnicki 1923
0.76
Backa
1.29

finishing

Radnicki 1923+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radnicki 1923 ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Radnicki 1923 or draw
80%
Radnicki 1923 or Backa
73%
Draw or Backa
46%

Winning margin

Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+
27%
Backa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Radnicki 1923 1+ goals
76%
Radnicki 1923 2+ goals
42%
Radnicki 1923 3+ goals
18%
Backa 1+ goals
53%
Backa 2+ goals
17%
Backa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)
73%
Backa (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radnicki 1923 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.76 · 51 matches

Backa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radnicki 1923 attack 1.59 + Backa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44

Backa attack 0.74 + Radnicki 1923 defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Radnicki 1923 scores more
54%
level
27%
Backa scores more
20%

Radnicki 1923 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Radnicki 1923 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radnicki 1923 vs Backa

Radnicki 1923 beat Backa 2-1 in Prva Liga on November 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Čika Dača in Kragujevac.