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Backa vs Radnicki 1923 — Prva Liga 2018

Backa
Backa
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Radnicki 1923
Radnicki 1923
8/18/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 4Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Backa45%
×Draw30%
Radnicki 192325%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backa
1.19
Radnicki 1923
0.81

Backa creates 47% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

creates per match

Backa
1.36
Radnicki 1923
0.86

allows per match

Backa
0.76
Radnicki 1923
1.02

finishing

Backa+0.00on par
Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

Radnicki 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Backa or draw
75%
Backa or Radnicki 1923
70%
Draw or Radnicki 1923
55%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+
20%
Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals
70%
Backa 2+ goals
33%
Backa 3+ goals
12%
Radnicki 1923 1+ goals
56%
Radnicki 1923 2+ goals
19%
Radnicki 1923 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)
64%
Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

Radnicki 1923 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 1.36 + Radnicki 1923 defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.19

Radnicki 1923 attack 0.86 + Backa defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Backa scores more
45%
level
30%
Radnicki 1923 scores more
25%

Backa at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Backa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Backa vs Radnicki 1923

Backa and Radnicki 1923 drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on August 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava in Bačka Palanka.