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Radan vs Moravac Mrštane — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Radan
Radan
FT
7 – 1
Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
11/15/2020Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 17Gradski Stadion FK Radan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Radan82%
×Draw12%
Moravac Mrštane7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radan
3.07
Moravac Mrštane
0.79

Radan creates 289% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Radan
1.96
Moravac Mrštane
0.79

allows per match

Radan
0.79
Moravac Mrštane
4.18

finishing

Radan+0.00on par
Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radan ↓

Moravac Mrštane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Radan or draw
93%
Radan or Moravac Mrštane
88%
Draw or Moravac Mrštane
18%

Winning margin

Radan wins by 2+
63%
Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Radan 1+ goals
95%
Radan 2+ goals
80%
Radan 3+ goals
58%
Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
55%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
19%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Radan (draw refunded)
92%
Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radan at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.79 · 28 matches

Moravac Mrštane away — creates 0.79, concedes 4.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radan attack 1.96 + Moravac Mrštane defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 3.07

Moravac Mrštane attack 0.79 + Radan defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Radan scores more
82%
level
12%
Moravac Mrštane scores more
7%

Radan at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Radan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Radan vs Moravac Mrštane

Radan beat Moravac Mrštane 7-1 in Srpska Liga - East on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion FK Radan in Lebane.