Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Moravac Mrštane vs Radan — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Moravac Mrštane
Moravac Mrštane
FT
0 – 9
Radan
Radan
5/22/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 36SC Orion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Moravac Mrštane20%
×Draw19%
Radan60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Moravac Mrštane
1.33
Radan
2.39

Radan creates 80% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

creates per match

Moravac Mrštane
1.19
Radan
1.56

allows per match

Moravac Mrštane
3.22
Radan
1.48

finishing

Moravac Mrštane+0.00on par
Radan+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Moravac Mrštane ↓

Radan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Moravac Mrštane or draw
40%
Moravac Mrštane or Radan
81%
Draw or Radan
80%

Winning margin

Moravac Mrštane wins by 2+
8%
Radan wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Moravac Mrštane 1+ goals
74%
Moravac Mrštane 2+ goals
38%
Moravac Mrštane 3+ goals
15%
Radan 1+ goals
91%
Radan 2+ goals
69%
Radan 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Moravac Mrštane (draw refunded)
25%
Radan (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Moravac Mrštane at home — creates 1.19, concedes 3.22 · 27 matches

Radan away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Moravac Mrštane attack 1.19 + Radan defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.33

Radan attack 1.56 + Moravac Mrštane defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Moravac Mrštane scores more
20%
level
19%
Radan scores more
60%

Radan at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Radan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Moravac Mrštane 0–9 Radan

Radan beat Moravac Mrštane 9-0 in Srpska Liga - East on May 22, 2021.

The match was played at SC Orion in Mrštane.