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RAD vs Polet Dorćol — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

RAD
RAD
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Polet Dorćol
Polet Dorćol
9/2/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 4Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RAD38%
×Draw29%
Polet Dorćol33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RAD
1.15
Polet Dorćol
1.04

RAD creates 11% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 68 away

creates per match

RAD
0.67
Polet Dorćol
0.75

allows per match

RAD
1.33
Polet Dorćol
1.62

finishing

RAD+0.00on par
Polet Dorćol+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAD ↓

Polet Dorćol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

RAD or draw
67%
RAD or Polet Dorćol
71%
Draw or Polet Dorćol
62%

Winning margin

RAD wins by 2+
16%
Polet Dorćol wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

RAD 1+ goals
68%
RAD 2+ goals
32%
RAD 3+ goals
11%
Polet Dorćol 1+ goals
65%
Polet Dorćol 2+ goals
28%
Polet Dorćol 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

RAD (draw refunded)
54%
Polet Dorćol (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAD at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

Polet Dorćol away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAD attack 0.67 + Polet Dorćol defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.15

Polet Dorćol attack 0.75 + RAD defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

RAD scores more
38%
level
29%
Polet Dorćol scores more
33%

RAD at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "RAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RAD vs Polet Dorćol

Polet Dorćol beat RAD 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi in Beograd.