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Polet Dorćol vs RAD — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Polet Dorćol
Polet Dorćol
FT
2 – 0
RAD
RAD
3/23/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 19Stadion FK GSP Polet

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Polet Dorćol61%
×Draw20%
RAD18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polet Dorćol
2.13
RAD
1.08

Polet Dorćol creates 97% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 15 away

creates per match

Polet Dorćol
1.52
RAD
0.67

allows per match

Polet Dorćol
1.49
RAD
2.73

finishing

Polet Dorćol+0.00on par
RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polet Dorćol ↓

RAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Polet Dorćol or draw
82%
Polet Dorćol or RAD
80%
Draw or RAD
39%

Winning margin

Polet Dorćol wins by 2+
38%
RAD wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Polet Dorćol 1+ goals
88%
Polet Dorćol 2+ goals
63%
Polet Dorćol 3+ goals
35%
RAD 1+ goals
66%
RAD 2+ goals
29%
RAD 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Polet Dorćol (draw refunded)
77%
RAD (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polet Dorćol at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.49 · 69 matches

RAD away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polet Dorćol attack 1.52 + RAD defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.13

RAD attack 0.67 + Polet Dorćol defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Polet Dorćol scores more
61%
level
20%
RAD scores more
18%

Polet Dorćol at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Polet Dorćol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polet Dorćol vs RAD

Polet Dorćol beat RAD 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK GSP Polet in Beograd.