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RAD vs Novi Pazar — Super Liga 2018

RAD
RAD
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
4/12/2021Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 31Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

RAD41%
×Draw26%
Novi Pazar33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RAD
1.39
Novi Pazar
1.23

RAD creates 13% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 114 away

creates per match

RAD
1.15
Novi Pazar
1.07

allows per match

RAD
1.40
Novi Pazar
1.63

finishing

RAD+0.00on par
Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAD ↓

Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

RAD or draw
67%
RAD or Novi Pazar
74%
Draw or Novi Pazar
59%

Winning margin

RAD wins by 2+
19%
Novi Pazar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

RAD 1+ goals
75%
RAD 2+ goals
40%
RAD 3+ goals
16%
Novi Pazar 1+ goals
71%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
35%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

RAD (draw refunded)
55%
Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAD at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.40 · 52 matches

Novi Pazar away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.63 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAD attack 1.15 + Novi Pazar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.39

Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + RAD defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

RAD scores more
41%
level
26%
Novi Pazar scores more
33%

RAD at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "RAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RAD vs Novi Pazar

RAD beat Novi Pazar 3-2 in Super Liga on April 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi in Beograd.