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Novi Pazar vs RAD — Super Liga 2018

Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
RAD
RAD
10/25/2020Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 12Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Novi Pazar52%
×Draw25%
RAD22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novi Pazar
1.58
RAD
0.94

Novi Pazar creates 68% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 53 away

creates per match

Novi Pazar
1.44
RAD
0.55

allows per match

Novi Pazar
1.32
RAD
1.72

finishing

Novi Pazar+0.00on par
RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novi Pazar ↓

RAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Novi Pazar or draw
78%
Novi Pazar or RAD
75%
Draw or RAD
48%

Winning margin

Novi Pazar wins by 2+
27%
RAD wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Novi Pazar 1+ goals
79%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
47%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
21%
RAD 1+ goals
61%
RAD 2+ goals
24%
RAD 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
70%
RAD (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

RAD away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.72 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novi Pazar attack 1.44 + RAD defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.58

RAD attack 0.55 + Novi Pazar defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Novi Pazar scores more
52%
level
25%
RAD scores more
22%

Novi Pazar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Novi Pazar 2 – 1 RAD

Novi Pazar beat RAD 2-1 in Super Liga on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Novi Pazar.