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RAD vs IMT Novi Beograd — Prva Liga 2018

RAD
RAD
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
IMT Novi Beograd
IMT Novi Beograd
10/2/2022Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 12Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

RAD33%
×Draw26%
IMT Novi Beograd41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RAD
1.22
IMT Novi Beograd
1.40

IMT Novi Beograd creates 15% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 54 away

creates per match

RAD
1.32
IMT Novi Beograd
1.57

allows per match

RAD
1.22
IMT Novi Beograd
1.11

finishing

RAD+0.00on par
IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAD ↓

IMT Novi Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

RAD or draw
59%
RAD or IMT Novi Beograd
74%
Draw or IMT Novi Beograd
67%

Winning margin

RAD wins by 2+
14%
IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

RAD 1+ goals
70%
RAD 2+ goals
34%
RAD 3+ goals
12%
IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals
75%
IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals
41%
IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

RAD (draw refunded)
44%
IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAD at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAD attack 1.32 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.57 + RAD defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

RAD scores more
33%
level
26%
IMT Novi Beograd scores more
41%

IMT Novi Beograd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: RAD 2–3 IMT Novi Beograd

IMT Novi Beograd beat RAD 3-2 in Prva Liga on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi in Beograd.