IMT Novi Beograd 2–0 RAD: Result & Stats

IMT Novi Beograd

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

RAD

3/11/2022

Prva Liga · Round 25Stadion FK IMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd60%

×Draw23%

RAD17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchRAD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.82

IMT Novi Beograd

1.76

RAD

0.82

IMT Novi Beograd creates 115% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 37 away

1.93

creates per match

0.76

0.89

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.93

RAD

0.76

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

0.89

RAD

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

RAD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

83%

IMT Novi Beograd or RAD

77%

Draw or RAD

40%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

34%

RAD wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

83%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

52%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

26%

RAD 1+ goals

56%

RAD 2+ goals

20%

RAD 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

78%

RAD (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.89 · 54 matches

RAD away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.93 + RAD defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.76

RAD attack 0.76 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

60%

level

23%

RAD scores more

17%

IMT Novi Beograd at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff