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RAD vs BASK — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

RAD
RAD
FT
0 – 3
BASK
BASK
5/11/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 27Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

RAD29%
×Draw30%
BASK41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RAD
0.91
BASK
1.13

BASK creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 90 away

creates per match

RAD
0.67
BASK
0.92

allows per match

RAD
1.33
BASK
1.14

finishing

RAD+0.00on par
BASK+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RAD ↓

BASK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

RAD or draw
59%
RAD or BASK
70%
Draw or BASK
71%

Winning margin

RAD wins by 2+
10%
BASK wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

RAD 1+ goals
60%
RAD 2+ goals
23%
RAD 3+ goals
6%
BASK 1+ goals
68%
BASK 2+ goals
31%
BASK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

RAD (draw refunded)
42%
BASK (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RAD at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

BASK away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RAD attack 0.67 + BASK defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

BASK attack 0.92 + RAD defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

RAD scores more
29%
level
30%
BASK scores more
41%

BASK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "BASK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RAD 0 – 3 BASK

BASK beat RAD 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kralj Petar Prvi in Beograd.