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BASK vs RAD — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

BASK
BASK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
RAD
RAD
10/27/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 12Stadion Careva Ćuprija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

BASK65%
×Draw20%
RAD15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BASK
2.16
RAD
0.93

BASK creates 132% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 15 away

creates per match

BASK
1.59
RAD
0.67

allows per match

BASK
1.18
RAD
2.73

finishing

BASK+0.00on par
RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BASK ↓

RAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

BASK or draw
85%
BASK or RAD
80%
Draw or RAD
35%

Winning margin

BASK wins by 2+
41%
RAD wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

BASK 1+ goals
88%
BASK 2+ goals
63%
BASK 3+ goals
36%
RAD 1+ goals
61%
RAD 2+ goals
24%
RAD 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

BASK (draw refunded)
81%
RAD (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BASK at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.18 · 90 matches

RAD away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BASK attack 1.59 + RAD defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.16

RAD attack 0.67 + BASK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

BASK scores more
65%
level
20%
RAD scores more
15%

BASK at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "BASK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BASK vs RAD

BASK beat RAD 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on October 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Careva Ćuprija in Beograd.