Racing 1–2 Fortuna Mfou: Result & Stats | Elite One

Racing

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fortuna Mfou

6/11/2022

Elite One · Round 26Stade de Ngoa Ekélé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Racing29%

×Draw26%

Fortuna Mfou45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RacingExpected goals in this matchFortuna Mfou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.50

Racing

1.16

Fortuna Mfou

1.50

Fortuna Mfou creates 29% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 96 away

0.92

creates per match

1.09

1.92

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Racing

0.92

Fortuna Mfou

1.09

allows per match

Racing

1.92

Fortuna Mfou

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing+0.00on par

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing ↓

Fortuna Mfou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Racing or draw

55%

Racing or Fortuna Mfou

74%

Draw or Fortuna Mfou

71%

Winning margin

Racing wins by 2+

12%

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Racing 1+ goals

69%

Racing 2+ goals

32%

Racing 3+ goals

11%

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals

78%

Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals

44%

Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Racing (draw refunded)

39%

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing attack 0.92 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.16

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Racing defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Racing scores more

29%

level

26%

Fortuna Mfou scores more

45%

Fortuna Mfou at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fortuna Mfou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff