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Fortuna Mfou vs Racing — Elite One 2019

Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
FT
0 – 0
Racing
Racing
4/5/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 7Stade Annexe de la Reunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Fortuna Mfou45%
×Draw28%
Racing27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Mfou
1.35
Racing
0.99

Fortuna Mfou creates 36% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 12 away

creates per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.28
Racing
0.75

allows per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.23
Racing
1.42

finishing

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par
Racing+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Mfou ↓

Racing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fortuna Mfou or draw
73%
Fortuna Mfou or Racing
72%
Draw or Racing
55%

Winning margin

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
21%
Racing wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
74%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
39%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
15%
Racing 1+ goals
63%
Racing 2+ goals
26%
Racing 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
62%
Racing (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Mfou at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 97 matches

Racing away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.28 + Racing defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35

Racing attack 0.75 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fortuna Mfou scores more
45%
level
28%
Racing scores more
27%

Fortuna Mfou at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fortuna Mfou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fortuna Mfou vs Racing

Fortuna Mfou and Racing drew 0-0 in Elite One on April 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Annexe de la Reunification in Douala.