Racing Seixal W 2–0 Ouriense W: Result & Stats

Racing Seixal W

FT

2 – 0

Ouriense W

10/21/2023

1a Divisão - Women · Round 5Estádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Racing Seixal W74%

×Draw18%

Ouriense W9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Seixal WExpected goals in this matchOuriense W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

0.59

Racing Seixal W

2.16

Ouriense W

0.59

Racing Seixal W creates 266% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

1.59

creates per match

0.64

0.55

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Racing Seixal W

1.59

Ouriense W

0.64

allows per match

Racing Seixal W

0.55

Ouriense W

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Seixal W+0.00on par

Ouriense W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Seixal W ↓

Ouriense W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Racing Seixal W or draw

91%

Racing Seixal W or Ouriense W

82%

Draw or Ouriense W

26%

Winning margin

Racing Seixal W wins by 2+

49%

Ouriense W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Racing Seixal W 1+ goals

88%

Racing Seixal W 2+ goals

63%

Racing Seixal W 3+ goals

36%

Ouriense W 1+ goals

45%

Ouriense W 2+ goals

12%

Ouriense W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Racing Seixal W (draw refunded)

89%

Ouriense W (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Seixal W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

Ouriense W away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.73 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Seixal W attack 1.59 + Ouriense W defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.16

Ouriense W attack 0.64 + Racing Seixal W defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Racing Seixal W scores more

74%

level

18%

Ouriense W scores more

9%

Racing Seixal W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Racing Seixal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff