Ouriense W 0–5 Racing Seixal W: Result & Stats

Ouriense W

FT

0 – 5

Racing Seixal W

3/10/2024

1a Divisão - Women · Round 16Campo da Caridade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ouriense W18%

×Draw23%

Racing Seixal W59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ouriense WExpected goals in this matchRacing Seixal W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

1.80

Ouriense W

0.89

Racing Seixal W

1.80

Racing Seixal W creates 102% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 22 away

0.68

creates per match

1.55

2.05

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Ouriense W

0.68

Racing Seixal W

1.55

allows per match

Ouriense W

2.05

Racing Seixal W

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ouriense W+0.00on par

Racing Seixal W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ouriense W ↓

Racing Seixal W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–112%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ouriense W or draw

41%

Ouriense W or Racing Seixal W

77%

Draw or Racing Seixal W

82%

Winning margin

Ouriense W wins by 2+

6%

Racing Seixal W wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Ouriense W 1+ goals

59%

Ouriense W 2+ goals

22%

Ouriense W 3+ goals

6%

Racing Seixal W 1+ goals

83%

Racing Seixal W 2+ goals

54%

Racing Seixal W 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Ouriense W (draw refunded)

24%

Racing Seixal W (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ouriense W at home — creates 0.68, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

Racing Seixal W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ouriense W attack 0.68 + Racing Seixal W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.89

Racing Seixal W attack 1.55 + Ouriense W defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ouriense W scores more

18%

level

23%

Racing Seixal W scores more

59%

Racing Seixal W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Racing Seixal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff