Racing Seixal W 2–0 Marítimo W: Result & Stats

Racing Seixal W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Marítimo W

1/11/2025

1a Divisão - Women · Round 12Estádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Racing Seixal W59%

×Draw24%

Marítimo W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Seixal WExpected goals in this matchMarítimo W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.82

Racing Seixal W

1.73

Marítimo W

0.82

Racing Seixal W creates 111% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 43 away

1.59

creates per match

1.09

0.55

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Racing Seixal W

1.59

Marítimo W

1.09

allows per match

Racing Seixal W

0.55

Marítimo W

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Seixal W+0.00on par

Marítimo W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Seixal W ↓

Marítimo W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Racing Seixal W or draw

82%

Racing Seixal W or Marítimo W

76%

Draw or Marítimo W

41%

Winning margin

Racing Seixal W wins by 2+

33%

Marítimo W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Racing Seixal W 1+ goals

82%

Racing Seixal W 2+ goals

52%

Racing Seixal W 3+ goals

25%

Marítimo W 1+ goals

56%

Marítimo W 2+ goals

20%

Marítimo W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Racing Seixal W (draw refunded)

77%

Marítimo W (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Seixal W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

Marítimo W away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.88 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Seixal W attack 1.59 + Marítimo W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.73

Marítimo W attack 1.09 + Racing Seixal W defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Racing Seixal W scores more

59%

level

24%

Marítimo W scores more

18%

Racing Seixal W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Racing Seixal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff