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Marítimo W vs Racing Seixal W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Marítimo W
Marítimo W
FT
0 – 2
Racing Seixal W
Racing Seixal W
10/15/20231a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 4Estádio dos Barreiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Marítimo W28%
×Draw24%
Racing Seixal W48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marítimo W
1.28
Racing Seixal W
1.75

Racing Seixal W creates 37% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 22 away

creates per match

Marítimo W
1.47
Racing Seixal W
1.55

allows per match

Marítimo W
1.95
Racing Seixal W
1.09

finishing

Marítimo W+0.00on par
Racing Seixal W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marítimo W ↓

Racing Seixal W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Marítimo W or draw
52%
Marítimo W or Racing Seixal W
76%
Draw or Racing Seixal W
72%

Winning margin

Marítimo W wins by 2+
12%
Racing Seixal W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Marítimo W 1+ goals
72%
Marítimo W 2+ goals
37%
Marítimo W 3+ goals
14%
Racing Seixal W 1+ goals
83%
Racing Seixal W 2+ goals
52%
Racing Seixal W 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Marítimo W (draw refunded)
37%
Racing Seixal W (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marítimo W at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.95 · 43 matches

Racing Seixal W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marítimo W attack 1.47 + Racing Seixal W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.28

Racing Seixal W attack 1.55 + Marítimo W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Marítimo W scores more
28%
level
24%
Racing Seixal W scores more
48%

Racing Seixal W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Racing Seixal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1a Divisão - Women: Marítimo W 0–2 Racing Seixal W

Racing Seixal W beat Marítimo W 2-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on October 15, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio dos Barreiros in Ilha da Madeira.