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Racing Seixal W vs Estoril Praia W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Racing Seixal W
Racing Seixal W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Estoril Praia W
Estoril Praia W
12/20/20241a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 10Estádio Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Racing Seixal W58%
×Draw21%
Estoril Praia W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Seixal W
2.12
Estoril Praia W
1.19

Racing Seixal W creates 78% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

Racing Seixal W
1.59
Estoril Praia W
1.82

allows per match

Racing Seixal W
0.55
Estoril Praia W
2.64

finishing

Racing Seixal W+0.00on par
Estoril Praia W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Seixal W ↓

Estoril Praia W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Racing Seixal W or draw
79%
Racing Seixal W or Estoril Praia W
79%
Draw or Estoril Praia W
42%

Winning margin

Racing Seixal W wins by 2+
36%
Estoril Praia W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Racing Seixal W 1+ goals
88%
Racing Seixal W 2+ goals
62%
Racing Seixal W 3+ goals
35%
Estoril Praia W 1+ goals
70%
Estoril Praia W 2+ goals
33%
Estoril Praia W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Racing Seixal W (draw refunded)
74%
Estoril Praia W (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Seixal W at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.55 · 22 matches

Estoril Praia W away — creates 1.82, concedes 2.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Seixal W attack 1.59 + Estoril Praia W defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.12

Estoril Praia W attack 1.82 + Racing Seixal W defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Racing Seixal W scores more
58%
level
21%
Estoril Praia W scores more
21%

Racing Seixal W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Racing Seixal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Seixal W vs Estoril Praia W

Racing Seixal W beat Estoril Praia W 3-2 in 1a Divisão - Women on December 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Nacional in Jamor, Oeiras.