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Estoril Praia W vs Racing Seixal W — 1a Divisão - Women 2022

Estoril Praia W
Estoril Praia W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Seixal W
Racing Seixal W
5/4/20251a Divisão - Women1a Divisão - Women · Round 21Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Estoril Praia W20%
×Draw24%
Racing Seixal W56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Estoril Praia W
0.91
Racing Seixal W
1.69

Racing Seixal W creates 86% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

Estoril Praia W
0.73
Racing Seixal W
1.55

allows per match

Estoril Praia W
1.82
Racing Seixal W
1.09

finishing

Estoril Praia W+0.00on par
Racing Seixal W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estoril Praia W ↓

Racing Seixal W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Estoril Praia W or draw
44%
Estoril Praia W or Racing Seixal W
76%
Draw or Racing Seixal W
80%

Winning margin

Estoril Praia W wins by 2+
7%
Racing Seixal W wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Estoril Praia W 1+ goals
60%
Estoril Praia W 2+ goals
23%
Estoril Praia W 3+ goals
6%
Racing Seixal W 1+ goals
82%
Racing Seixal W 2+ goals
50%
Racing Seixal W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Estoril Praia W (draw refunded)
27%
Racing Seixal W (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estoril Praia W at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

Racing Seixal W away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estoril Praia W attack 0.73 + Racing Seixal W defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.91

Racing Seixal W attack 1.55 + Estoril Praia W defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Estoril Praia W scores more
20%
level
24%
Racing Seixal W scores more
56%

Racing Seixal W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Racing Seixal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Estoril Praia W vs Racing Seixal W

Estoril Praia W and Racing Seixal W drew 0-0 in 1a Divisão - Women on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Estoril.