Racing Santander 2–1 Malaga: Result & Stats

Racing Santander

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Malaga

Juan Carlos Arana 28', 15'

Julen Lobete 6'

2/1/2025

Segunda División · Round 25Campos de Sport de El Sardinero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Racing Santander46%

×Draw27%

Malaga27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing SantanderExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.03

Racing Santander

1.44

Malaga

1.03

Racing Santander creates 40% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 150 away

1.67

creates per match

0.95

1.11

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Racing Santander

1.67

Malaga

0.95

allows per match

Racing Santander

1.11

Malaga

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Malaga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Racing Santander or draw

73%

Racing Santander or Malaga

73%

Draw or Malaga

54%

Winning margin

Racing Santander wins by 2+

23%

Malaga wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Racing Santander 1+ goals

76%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

42%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

18%

Malaga 1+ goals

64%

Malaga 2+ goals

28%

Malaga 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

63%

Malaga (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 106 matches

Malaga away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.20 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander attack 1.67 + Malaga defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.44

Malaga attack 0.95 + Racing Santander defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Racing Santander scores more

46%

level

27%

Malaga scores more

27%

Racing Santander at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Andrés Martín

Racing Santander · M

8.9

Match Events

6'

Julen Lobete↳ Dioni

15'

Juan Carlos Arana↳ Andrés Martín

19'

Manu Molina

22'

Dioni

28'

Juan Carlos Arana↳ Andrés Martín

36'

Jokin Gabilondo

46'

Puga← Gabilondo

56'

Víctor Meseguer← Aritz Aldasoro

58'

Francisco Montero

58'

Julen LobeteGoal cancelled

66'

Pablo Rodríguez← Juan Carlos Arana

67'

Mario García← Saúl García

68'

Izan Merino← Ramón Enríquez

68'

Y. Rahmani← Antonio Cordero

78'

Marco Sangalli

80'

Manu Hernando← Javi Montero

80'

Kevin Medina← David Larrubia

81'

M. Gueye← Unai Vencedor

87'

R. Baturina← Víctor García

89'

Víctor Meseguer

90'

Andrés Martín

90+4'

Álex Pastor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingMalaga

Overview

45%Possession55%

21Total Shots9

8Corners4

14Fouls18

Shots

21Total Shots9

6On Target2

8Off Target5

7Blocked2

15Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

320Total Passes405

246Accurate Passes329

77%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls18

4Yellow Cards4

3Offsides7

Match Recap: Racing Santander vs Malaga

Racing Santander beat Malaga 2-1 in Segunda División on February 1, 2025.

Goals: Julen Lobete (6'), Juan Carlos Arana (15', 28').

Malaga controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 21.

The match was played at Campos de Sport de El Sardinero in Santander.

Racing Santander vs Malaga — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Racing Santander vs Malaga