Malaga 0–1 Racing Santander: Result & Stats

Malaga

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Racing Santander

Iñigo Vicente 67'

3/5/2023

Segunda División · Round 30Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Malaga43%

×Draw28%

Racing Santander29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalagaExpected goals in this matchRacing Santander

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.03

Malaga

1.30

Racing Santander

1.03

Malaga creates 26% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 106 away

1.17

creates per match

1.16

0.91

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Malaga

1.17

Racing Santander

1.16

allows per match

Malaga

0.91

Racing Santander

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Racing Santander →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Malaga or draw

71%

Malaga or Racing Santander

72%

Draw or Racing Santander

57%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+

19%

Racing Santander wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals

73%

Malaga 2+ goals

37%

Malaga 3+ goals

14%

Racing Santander 1+ goals

64%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

28%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)

59%

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Racing Santander defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Racing Santander attack 1.16 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Malaga scores more

43%

level

28%

Racing Santander scores more

29%

Malaga at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Fran Villalba

Malaga · M

8.3

Match Events

31'

Rubén

45+2'

Juergen Elitim

46'

Genaro

60'

Juande Rivas← E. Burgos

60'

A. N'Diaye← Luis Muñoz

67'

Iñigo Vicente↳ R. Baturina

68'

Iñigo Vicente

71'

Fran Sol← Jonás Ramalho

74'

Matheus Aiás← R. Baturina

74'

Fausto Tienza← J. Elitim

81'

Marco Sangalli← Iñigo Vicente

85'

89'

89'

90+6'

90'

Arturo Molina← Jorge Pombo

90'

Pol Moreno← Jordi Mboula

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MalagaRacing

Overview

44%Possession56%

20Total Shots14

5Corners6

14Fouls14

Shots

20Total Shots14

3On Target7

11Off Target3

6Blocked4

13Inside Box10

7Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

317Total Passes436

247Accurate Passes363

78%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1

Segunda División: Malaga 0–1 Racing Santander

Racing Santander beat Malaga 1-0 in Segunda División on March 5, 2023.

Goals: Iñigo Vicente (67').

Racing Santander controlled possession (56%) and registered 14 shots to 20.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga.

Malaga vs Racing Santander — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Malaga 0–1 Racing Santander