Racing Santander 2–0 Internacional de Madrid

Racing Santander

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Internacional de Madrid

S. Soko 80', 45+2'

9/24/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Campos de Sport de El Sardinero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Racing Santander61%

×Draw25%

Internacional de Madrid14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing SantanderExpected goals in this matchInternacional de Madrid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

0.60

Racing Santander

1.57

Internacional de Madrid

0.60

Racing Santander creates 162% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 33 away

1.72

creates per match

0.76

0.44

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Racing Santander

1.72

Internacional de Madrid

0.76

allows per match

Racing Santander

0.44

Internacional de Madrid

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander ↓

Internacional de Madrid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Racing Santander or draw

86%

Racing Santander or Internacional de Madrid

75%

Draw or Internacional de Madrid

39%

Winning margin

Racing Santander wins by 2+

33%

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Racing Santander 1+ goals

79%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

46%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

21%

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

45%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

12%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

81%

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.44 · 18 matches

Internacional de Madrid away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander attack 1.72 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.57

Internacional de Madrid attack 0.76 + Racing Santander defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Racing Santander scores more

61%

level

25%

Internacional de Madrid scores more

14%

Racing Santander at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+2'

S. Soko

46'

B. Dominguez Dominguez

51'

A. Masogo

55'

Kenneth Soler← Álex Masogo

62'

Fausto Tienza← Borja Domínguez

69'

Alberto Gil← Álvaro Martín

69'

Álvaro Montero← David Barral

72'

Sergio Marcos← Pablo Torre

72'

Isma López← Álvaro Bustos

80'

S. Soko

82'

Pitu← Reguera

82'

S. Brulmans← Adrián Mance

87'

Carlos Castro← C. Omoigui

87'

Mario Jorrín← S. Soko

Racing

Internacional

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Guillermo Fernández

62'▲Fausto Tienza←▼Borja Domínguez

72'▲Sergio Marcos←▼Pablo Torre

72'▲Isma López←▼Álvaro Bustos

87'▲Carlos Castro←▼C. Omoigui

87'▲Mario Jorrín←▼S. Soko

Racing Santander substitutes

TienzaMarcosLópezCastroJorrínGonzálezCeballosSalasCamúsPareraBobadilla

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

55'▲Kenneth Soler←▼Álex Masogo

69'▲Alberto Gil←▼Álvaro Martín

69'▲Álvaro Montero←▼David Barral

82'▲Pitu←▼Reguera

82'▲S. Brulmans←▼Adrián Mance

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

SolerGilMonteroPituBrulmansSiuBravoBlázquezGonzálezArribasKolderiu

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Racing Santander 2–0 Internacional de Madrid

Racing Santander beat Internacional de Madrid 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on September 24, 2021.

Goals: S. Soko (45+2', 80').

The match was played at Campos de Sport de El Sardinero in Santander.

Racing Santander vs Internacional de Madrid — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Racing Santander 2–0 Internacional de Madrid