Internacional de Madrid 0–3 Racing Santander

Internacional de Madrid

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Racing Santander

Javi Vázquez 90+4'

C. Omoigui 73'

Fausto Tienza 37'

4/10/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 31Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Internacional de Madrid41%

×Draw25%

Racing Santander34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internacional de MadridExpected goals in this matchRacing Santander

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.35

Internacional de Madrid

1.52

Racing Santander

1.35

Internacional de Madrid creates 13% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 19 away

1.82

creates per match

1.47

1.24

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.82

Racing Santander

1.47

allows per match

Internacional de Madrid

1.24

Racing Santander

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internacional de Madrid+0.00on par

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internacional de Madrid ↓

Racing Santander →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Internacional de Madrid or draw

66%

Internacional de Madrid or Racing Santander

75%

Draw or Racing Santander

59%

Winning margin

Internacional de Madrid wins by 2+

20%

Racing Santander wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Internacional de Madrid 1+ goals

78%

Internacional de Madrid 2+ goals

45%

Internacional de Madrid 3+ goals

20%

Racing Santander 1+ goals

74%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

39%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Internacional de Madrid (draw refunded)

55%

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internacional de Madrid at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.24 · 33 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internacional de Madrid attack 1.82 + Racing Santander defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.52

Racing Santander attack 1.47 + Internacional de Madrid defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Internacional de Madrid scores more

41%

level

25%

Racing Santander scores more

34%

Internacional de Madrid at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Internacional de Madrid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

A. Mantilla

37'

Fausto Tienza

42'

J. Moyano

50'

Adrián Mance← Jesús Moyano

50'

Marcos Bravo← Alberto Gil

62'

Borja Domínguez← Sergio Marcos

65'

P. Bobadilla

65'

Abdullá Washington← Alvar Herrero

65'

S. Brulmans← Pitu

71'

Marco Camús← Arturo Molina

73'

C. Omoigui

77'

A. Mancebo

82'

Álvaro Montero← Arthur

85'

S. Brulmans

85'

Javi Vázquez← S. Soko

85'

Manu Justo← C. Omoigui

90+1'

L. Marin

90+4'

Javi Vázquez

Internacional

Racing

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alfredo Santaelena

50'▲Adrián Mance←▼Jesús Moyano

50'▲Marcos Bravo←▼Alberto Gil

65'▲Abdullá Washington←▼Alvar Herrero

65'▲S. Brulmans←▼Pitu

82'▲Álvaro Montero←▼Arthur

Internacional de Madrid substitutes

ManceBravoWashingtonBrulmansMonteroMasogoSiuKolderiuYelco

Manager: Guillermo Fernández

62'▲Borja Domínguez←▼Sergio Marcos

71'▲Marco Camús←▼Arturo Molina

85'▲Javi Vázquez←▼S. Soko

85'▲Manu Justo←▼C. Omoigui

Racing Santander substitutes

DomínguezCamúsVázquezJustoBustosMantillaLópezHarperDíazCabanzón

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Racing Santander

Racing Santander beat Internacional de Madrid 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on April 10, 2022.

Goals: Fausto Tienza (37'), C. Omoigui (73'), Javi Vázquez (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Villaviciosa de Odón in Villaviciosa de Odón.

Internacional de Madrid vs Racing Santander — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Internacional de Madrid vs Racing Santander