Racing Santander 4–0 Eibar: Result & Stats

Racing Santander

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Eibar

11/30/2025

Segunda División · Round 16Estadio El Sardinero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Racing Santander45%

×Draw27%

Eibar28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing SantanderExpected goals in this matchEibar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.05

Racing Santander

1.42

Eibar

1.05

Racing Santander creates 35% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 108 away

1.67

creates per match

0.99

1.11

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Racing Santander

1.67

Eibar

0.99

allows per match

Racing Santander

1.11

Eibar

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Eibar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander ↓

Eibar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Racing Santander or draw

72%

Racing Santander or Eibar

73%

Draw or Eibar

55%

Winning margin

Racing Santander wins by 2+

22%

Eibar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Racing Santander 1+ goals

76%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

41%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

17%

Eibar 1+ goals

65%

Eibar 2+ goals

28%

Eibar 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

62%

Eibar (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 106 matches

Eibar away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.18 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander attack 1.67 + Eibar defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Eibar attack 0.99 + Racing Santander defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Racing Santander scores more

45%

level

27%

Eibar scores more

28%

Racing Santander at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff