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Eibar vs Racing Santander — Segunda División 2018

Eibar
Eibar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
2/15/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 26Estadio Municipal de Ipurua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Eibar49%
×Draw26%
Racing Santander25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eibar
1.50
Racing Santander
0.99

Eibar creates 52% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 106 away

creates per match

Eibar
1.56
Racing Santander
1.16

allows per match

Eibar
0.82
Racing Santander
1.43

finishing

Eibar+0.00on par
Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar ↓

Racing Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Eibar or draw
75%
Eibar or Racing Santander
74%
Draw or Racing Santander
51%

Winning margin

Eibar wins by 2+
25%
Racing Santander wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Eibar 1+ goals
78%
Eibar 2+ goals
44%
Eibar 3+ goals
19%
Racing Santander 1+ goals
63%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
26%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Eibar (draw refunded)
66%
Racing Santander (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar attack 1.56 + Racing Santander defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.50

Racing Santander attack 1.16 + Eibar defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Eibar scores more
49%
level
26%
Racing Santander scores more
25%

Eibar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Eibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eibar vs Racing Santander

Eibar beat Racing Santander 2-1 in Segunda División on February 15, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ipurua in Eibar.