Racing Santander 4–1 Cadiz: Result & Stats

Racing Santander

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Cadiz

I. Vicente 73'

J. Arana 34', 29'

P. Canales 14'

A. Fernandez 57'

5/31/2026

Segunda División · Round 42Estadio El Sardinero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Racing Santander45%

×Draw26%

Cadiz29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing SantanderExpected goals in this matchCadiz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.10

Racing Santander

1.45

Cadiz

1.10

Racing Santander creates 32% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 84 away

1.67

creates per match

1.08

1.11

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Racing Santander

1.67

Cadiz

1.08

allows per match

Racing Santander

1.11

Cadiz

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Santander+0.00on par

Cadiz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander ↓

Cadiz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Racing Santander or draw

71%

Racing Santander or Cadiz

74%

Draw or Cadiz

55%

Winning margin

Racing Santander wins by 2+

22%

Cadiz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Racing Santander 1+ goals

77%

Racing Santander 2+ goals

42%

Racing Santander 3+ goals

18%

Cadiz 1+ goals

67%

Cadiz 2+ goals

30%

Cadiz 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander (draw refunded)

61%

Cadiz (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 106 matches

Cadiz away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander attack 1.67 + Cadiz defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.45

Cadiz attack 1.08 + Racing Santander defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Racing Santander scores more

45%

level

26%

Cadiz scores more

29%

Racing Santander at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

I. Vicente

Racing Santander · M

10.0

Match Events

14'

P. Canales↳ J. Arana

29'

J. Arana↳ P. Canales

34'

J. Arana↳ I. Vicente

46'

A. Pascual← J. Domina

46'

D. Camara← S. Ortuno

53'

J. Mata← J. Arana

53'

S. Camara← I. Sainz-Maza

57'

A. Fernandez

73'

I. Vicente

81'

J. Salinas← M. Sangalli

81'

S. Martinez← A. Aldasoro

83'

M. Diakite← A. Fernandez

87'

Chino← P. Canales

88'

J. Moreno← P. Fernandez

88'

P. Arana← J. de la Rosa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RacingCadiz

Overview

48%Possession52%

21Total Shots12

2.93Expected Goals (xG)1.12

3Corners3

10Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots12

8On Target3

7Off Target7

6Blocked2

17Inside Box8

4Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

474Total Passes505

410Accurate Passes434

86%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls8

2Offsides3