Cadiz vs Racing Santander — Segunda División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 86+ matches
Cadiz43%
Racing Santander30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Cadiz creates 25% more chances
Season form · 86 home / 106 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Cadiz ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Cadiz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches
Racing Santander away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 106 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Cadiz attack 1.28 + Racing Santander defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35
Racing Santander attack 1.16 + Cadiz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Cadiz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Racing Santander substitutes
Racing Santander
Malaga
Almeria
Deportivo La Coruna
Las Palmas
Castellón
Burgos
Eibar
Sporting Gijon
Cordoba
AD Ceuta FC
Albacete
FC Andorra
Granada CF
Real Sociedad II
Leganes
ValladolidCadiz
Mirandes
Huesca
Cultural Leonesa
ZaragozaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Cadiz host Racing Santander on Sunday, 20 October 2024 at 12:00. The match is part of the Segunda División 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Cadiz vs Racing Santander
Racing Santander beat Cadiz 1-0 in Segunda División on October 20, 2024.
Goals: Juan Carlos Arana (56').
Racing Santander controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 15.
The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in Cádiz.