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Racing Santander vs Amorebieta — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Racing Santander
Racing Santander
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Amorebieta
Amorebieta
1/10/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Campos de Sport de El Sardinero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Racing Santander39%
×Draw29%
Amorebieta32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Santander
1.18
Amorebieta
1.04

Racing Santander creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

creates per match

Racing Santander
1.38
Amorebieta
1.07

allows per match

Racing Santander
1.00
Amorebieta
0.98

finishing

Racing Santander+0.00on par
Amorebieta+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander ↓

Amorebieta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Racing Santander or draw
68%
Racing Santander or Amorebieta
71%
Draw or Amorebieta
61%

Winning margin

Racing Santander wins by 2+
17%
Amorebieta wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Racing Santander 1+ goals
69%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
33%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
12%
Amorebieta 1+ goals
65%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
28%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander (draw refunded)
55%
Amorebieta (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

Amorebieta away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander attack 1.38 + Amorebieta defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.18

Amorebieta attack 1.07 + Racing Santander defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Racing Santander scores more
39%
level
29%
Amorebieta scores more
32%

Racing Santander at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Racing Santander will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Racing Santander 0–1 Amorebieta

Amorebieta beat Racing Santander 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 10, 2021.

The match was played at Campos de Sport de El Sardinero in Santander.