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Amorebieta vs Racing Santander — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Amorebieta
Amorebieta
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Santander
Racing Santander
4/2/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 22Campo Municipal de Urritxe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Amorebieta38%
×Draw26%
Racing Santander36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Amorebieta
1.34
Racing Santander
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 13 away

creates per match

Amorebieta
1.54
Racing Santander
1.69

allows per match

Amorebieta
0.93
Racing Santander
1.15

finishing

Amorebieta+0.00on par
Racing Santander+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Amorebieta ↓

Racing Santander →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Amorebieta or draw
64%
Amorebieta or Racing Santander
74%
Draw or Racing Santander
62%

Winning margin

Amorebieta wins by 2+
17%
Racing Santander wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Amorebieta 1+ goals
74%
Amorebieta 2+ goals
39%
Amorebieta 3+ goals
15%
Racing Santander 1+ goals
73%
Racing Santander 2+ goals
38%
Racing Santander 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Amorebieta (draw refunded)
51%
Racing Santander (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Amorebieta at home — creates 1.54, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

Racing Santander away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Amorebieta attack 1.54 + Racing Santander defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.34

Racing Santander attack 1.69 + Amorebieta defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Amorebieta scores more
38%
level
26%
Racing Santander scores more
36%

Amorebieta at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Amorebieta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Amorebieta vs Racing Santander

Racing Santander beat Amorebieta 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 2, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Urritxe in Amorebieta-Echano.