Racing Santander II 1–3 Laredo: Result & Stats

Racing Santander II

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Laredo

9/22/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Campo Municipal de Villaescusa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Racing Santander II45%

×Draw25%

Laredo31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Santander IIExpected goals in this matchLaredo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.27

Racing Santander II

1.58

Laredo

1.27

Racing Santander II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 51 away

2.37

creates per match

1.65

0.89

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Racing Santander II

2.37

Laredo

1.65

allows per match

Racing Santander II

0.89

Laredo

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Santander II+0.00on par

Laredo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander II ↓

Laredo →

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Racing Santander II or draw

69%

Racing Santander II or Laredo

75%

Draw or Laredo

55%

Winning margin

Racing Santander II wins by 2+

23%

Laredo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Racing Santander II 1+ goals

79%

Racing Santander II 2+ goals

47%

Racing Santander II 3+ goals

21%

Laredo 1+ goals

72%

Laredo 2+ goals

36%

Laredo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander II (draw refunded)

59%

Laredo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander II at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Laredo away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.78 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander II attack 2.37 + Laredo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.58

Laredo attack 1.65 + Racing Santander II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Racing Santander II scores more

45%

level

25%

Laredo scores more

31%

Racing Santander II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Santander II vs Laredo

Laredo beat Racing Santander II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Villaescusa in Villaescusa.

Racing Santander II vs Laredo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Racing Santander II vs Laredo