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Laredo vs Racing Santander II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Laredo
Laredo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Racing Santander II
Racing Santander II
2/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 25Campo San Lorenzo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Laredo42%
×Draw27%
Racing Santander II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laredo
1.36
Racing Santander II
1.14

Laredo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 27 away

creates per match

Laredo
1.87
Racing Santander II
1.56

allows per match

Laredo
0.72
Racing Santander II
0.85

finishing

Laredo+0.00on par
Racing Santander II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laredo ↓

Racing Santander II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Laredo or draw
69%
Laredo or Racing Santander II
73%
Draw or Racing Santander II
58%

Winning margin

Laredo wins by 2+
19%
Racing Santander II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Laredo 1+ goals
74%
Laredo 2+ goals
39%
Laredo 3+ goals
16%
Racing Santander II 1+ goals
68%
Racing Santander II 2+ goals
32%
Racing Santander II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Laredo (draw refunded)
57%
Racing Santander II (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laredo at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.72 · 47 matches

Racing Santander II away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laredo attack 1.87 + Racing Santander II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.36

Racing Santander II attack 1.56 + Laredo defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Laredo scores more
42%
level
27%
Racing Santander II scores more
31%

Laredo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Laredo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laredo vs Racing Santander II

Laredo and Racing Santander II drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 15, 2020.

The match was played at Campo San Lorenzo in Laredo.