Racing Santander II 1–3 Guarnizo: Result & Stats

Racing Santander II

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Guarnizo

10/20/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Estadio La Albericia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Racing Santander II54%

×Draw23%

Guarnizo22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing Santander IIExpected goals in this matchGuarnizo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.06

Racing Santander II

1.79

Guarnizo

1.06

Racing Santander II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 111 away

2.37

creates per match

1.23

0.89

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Racing Santander II

2.37

Guarnizo

1.23

allows per match

Racing Santander II

0.89

Guarnizo

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Santander II+0.00on par

Guarnizo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander II ↓

Guarnizo →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Racing Santander II or draw

78%

Racing Santander II or Guarnizo

77%

Draw or Guarnizo

46%

Winning margin

Racing Santander II wins by 2+

30%

Guarnizo wins by 2+

Team goals

Racing Santander II 1+ goals

83%

Racing Santander II 2+ goals

53%

Racing Santander II 3+ goals

26%

Guarnizo 1+ goals

65%

Guarnizo 2+ goals

29%

Guarnizo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Racing Santander II (draw refunded)

71%

Guarnizo (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander II at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Guarnizo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander II attack 2.37 + Guarnizo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.79

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Racing Santander II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Racing Santander II scores more

54%

level

23%

Guarnizo scores more

22%

Racing Santander II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Racing Santander II vs Guarnizo

Guarnizo beat Racing Santander II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Albericia in Santander.

Racing Santander II vs Guarnizo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Racing Santander II vs Guarnizo