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Guarnizo vs Racing Santander II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Guarnizo
Guarnizo
CANC
00:00
Racing Santander II
Racing Santander II
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Estadio El Pilar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Guarnizo30%
×Draw28%
Racing Santander II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarnizo
1.04
Racing Santander II
1.27

Racing Santander II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 27 away

creates per match

Guarnizo
1.23
Racing Santander II
1.56

allows per match

Guarnizo
0.98
Racing Santander II
0.85

finishing

Guarnizo+0.00on par
Racing Santander II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarnizo ↓

Racing Santander II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guarnizo or draw
58%
Guarnizo or Racing Santander II
72%
Draw or Racing Santander II
70%

Winning margin

Guarnizo wins by 2+
11%
Racing Santander II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Guarnizo 1+ goals
65%
Guarnizo 2+ goals
28%
Guarnizo 3+ goals
9%
Racing Santander II 1+ goals
72%
Racing Santander II 2+ goals
36%
Racing Santander II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Guarnizo (draw refunded)
42%
Racing Santander II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarnizo at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.98 · 111 matches

Racing Santander II away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Racing Santander II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.04

Racing Santander II attack 1.56 + Guarnizo defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Guarnizo scores more
30%
level
28%
Racing Santander II scores more
42%

Racing Santander II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Guarnizo face Racing Santander II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 returns with Guarnizo hosting Racing Santander II. Match starts March 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Guarnizo host Racing Santander II at Estadio El Pilar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.