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Racing Santander II vs Barreda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Racing Santander II
Racing Santander II
CANC
00:00
Barreda
Barreda
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 32Estadio La Albericia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Racing Santander II64%
×Draw20%
Barreda16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Santander II
2.13
Barreda
0.95

Racing Santander II creates 124% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 61 away

creates per match

Racing Santander II
2.37
Barreda
1.00

allows per match

Racing Santander II
0.89
Barreda
1.90

finishing

Racing Santander II+0.00on par
Barreda+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Santander II ↓

Barreda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Racing Santander II or draw
84%
Racing Santander II or Barreda
80%
Draw or Barreda
36%

Winning margin

Racing Santander II wins by 2+
40%
Barreda wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Racing Santander II 1+ goals
88%
Racing Santander II 2+ goals
63%
Racing Santander II 3+ goals
35%
Barreda 1+ goals
61%
Barreda 2+ goals
25%
Barreda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Racing Santander II (draw refunded)
80%
Barreda (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Santander II at home — creates 2.37, concedes 0.89 · 27 matches

Barreda away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Santander II attack 2.37 + Barreda defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.13

Barreda attack 1.00 + Racing Santander II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Racing Santander II scores more
64%
level
20%
Barreda scores more
16%

Racing Santander II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Racing Santander II host Barreda

April 5, 2020: Racing Santander II take on Barreda in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Racing Santander II host Barreda at Estadio La Albericia.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.