Barreda 0–1 Racing Santander II: Result & Stats

Barreda

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Racing Santander II

Martín Solar 74'

11/9/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Estadio Solvay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Barreda29%

×Draw26%

Racing Santander II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarredaExpected goals in this matchRacing Santander II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.43

Barreda

1.09

Racing Santander II

1.43

Racing Santander II creates 31% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 27 away

1.33

creates per match

1.56

1.30

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Barreda

1.33

Racing Santander II

1.56

allows per match

Barreda

1.30

Racing Santander II

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barreda+0.00on par

Racing Santander II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barreda ↓

Racing Santander II →

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Barreda or draw

55%

Barreda or Racing Santander II

74%

Draw or Racing Santander II

71%

Winning margin

Barreda wins by 2+

11%

Racing Santander II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Barreda 1+ goals

66%

Barreda 2+ goals

30%

Barreda 3+ goals

10%

Racing Santander II 1+ goals

76%

Racing Santander II 2+ goals

42%

Racing Santander II 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Barreda (draw refunded)

39%

Racing Santander II (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Barreda at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.30 · 61 matches

Racing Santander II away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Barreda attack 1.33 + Racing Santander II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Racing Santander II attack 1.56 + Barreda defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Barreda scores more

29%

level

26%

Racing Santander II scores more

45%

Racing Santander II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Racing Santander II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

Mario Musy← Gonzalo Peña

64'

Rafa Tresaco← L. Ligio

74'

Martín Solar

78'

Jesús Lombilla← Chini

85'

Dani Ruiz← Chus Ortega

89'

Dani Gómez← Martín Solar

Barreda

Racing

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alejandro Cayón

78'▲Jesús Lombilla←▼Chini

85'▲Dani Ruiz←▼Chus Ortega

Barreda substitutes

LombillaRuiz

Manager: Richard Alonso

52'▲Mario Musy←▼Gonzalo Peña

64'▲Rafa Tresaco←▼L. Ligio

89'▲Dani Gómez←▼Martín Solar

Racing Santander II substitutes

MusyTresacoGómez

Match Recap: Barreda vs Racing Santander II

Racing Santander II beat Barreda 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 9, 2019.

Goals: Martín Solar (74').

The match was played at Estadio Solvay in Torrelavega.

Barreda vs Racing Santander II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Barreda vs Racing Santander II