Racing Rioja 1–1 Náxara: Result & Stats

Racing Rioja

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Náxara

11/7/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 4Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Racing Rioja31%

×Draw23%

Náxara46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing RiojaExpected goals in this matchNáxara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.78

Racing Rioja

1.44

Náxara

1.78

Náxara creates 24% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 59 away

1.80

creates per match

2.49

1.07

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Racing Rioja

1.80

Náxara

2.49

allows per match

Racing Rioja

1.07

Náxara

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Náxara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja ↓

Náxara →

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Racing Rioja or draw

54%

Racing Rioja or Náxara

77%

Draw or Náxara

69%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja wins by 2+

14%

Náxara wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Racing Rioja 1+ goals

76%

Racing Rioja 2+ goals

42%

Racing Rioja 3+ goals

18%

Náxara 1+ goals

83%

Náxara 2+ goals

53%

Náxara 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja (draw refunded)

41%

Náxara (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Náxara away — creates 2.49, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja attack 1.80 + Náxara defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.44

Náxara attack 2.49 + Racing Rioja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Racing Rioja scores more

31%

level

23%

Náxara scores more

46%

Náxara at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff