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Náxara vs Racing Rioja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Náxara
Náxara
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Racing Rioja
Racing Rioja
2/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 15Estadio La Salera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Náxara58%
×Draw21%
Racing Rioja20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Náxara
2.00
Racing Rioja
1.08

Náxara creates 85% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 30 away

creates per match

Náxara
2.56
Racing Rioja
1.47

allows per match

Náxara
0.69
Racing Rioja
1.43

finishing

Náxara+0.00on par
Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Náxara ↓

Racing Rioja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Náxara or draw
80%
Náxara or Racing Rioja
79%
Draw or Racing Rioja
42%

Winning margin

Náxara wins by 2+
35%
Racing Rioja wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Náxara 1+ goals
86%
Náxara 2+ goals
59%
Náxara 3+ goals
32%
Racing Rioja 1+ goals
66%
Racing Rioja 2+ goals
29%
Racing Rioja 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Náxara (draw refunded)
74%
Racing Rioja (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Náxara at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.69 · 59 matches

Racing Rioja away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Náxara attack 2.56 + Racing Rioja defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.00

Racing Rioja attack 1.47 + Náxara defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Náxara scores more
58%
level
21%
Racing Rioja scores more
20%

Náxara at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Náxara 0–1 Racing Rioja

Racing Rioja beat Náxara 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Salera in Nájera.