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Racing Rioja vs Casalarreina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Racing Rioja
Racing Rioja
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Casalarreina
Casalarreina
3/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 20Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Racing Rioja49%
×Draw24%
Casalarreina27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Racing Rioja
1.69
Casalarreina
1.21

Racing Rioja creates 40% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 91 away

creates per match

Racing Rioja
1.80
Casalarreina
1.34

allows per match

Racing Rioja
1.07
Casalarreina
1.58

finishing

Racing Rioja+0.00on par
Casalarreina+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja ↓

Casalarreina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Racing Rioja or draw
73%
Racing Rioja or Casalarreina
76%
Draw or Casalarreina
51%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja wins by 2+
26%
Casalarreina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Racing Rioja 1+ goals
82%
Racing Rioja 2+ goals
50%
Racing Rioja 3+ goals
24%
Casalarreina 1+ goals
70%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
34%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja (draw refunded)
64%
Casalarreina (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Casalarreina away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja attack 1.80 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.69

Casalarreina attack 1.34 + Racing Rioja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Racing Rioja scores more
49%
level
24%
Casalarreina scores more
27%

Racing Rioja at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Racing Rioja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Racing Rioja 3–2 Casalarreina

Racing Rioja beat Casalarreina 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Salvador in Logroño.