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Casalarreina vs Racing Rioja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Casalarreina
Casalarreina
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Racing Rioja
Racing Rioja
12/13/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 9Estadio Municipal El Soto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Casalarreina40%
×Draw24%
Racing Rioja36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casalarreina
1.62
Racing Rioja
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 30 away

creates per match

Casalarreina
1.81
Racing Rioja
1.47

allows per match

Casalarreina
1.58
Racing Rioja
1.43

finishing

Casalarreina+0.00on par
Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casalarreina ↓

Racing Rioja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Casalarreina or draw
64%
Casalarreina or Racing Rioja
76%
Draw or Racing Rioja
60%

Winning margin

Casalarreina wins by 2+
20%
Racing Rioja wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Casalarreina 1+ goals
80%
Casalarreina 2+ goals
48%
Casalarreina 3+ goals
22%
Racing Rioja 1+ goals
78%
Racing Rioja 2+ goals
45%
Racing Rioja 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Casalarreina (draw refunded)
53%
Racing Rioja (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casalarreina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.58 · 91 matches

Racing Rioja away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casalarreina attack 1.81 + Racing Rioja defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.62

Racing Rioja attack 1.47 + Casalarreina defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Casalarreina scores more
40%
level
24%
Racing Rioja scores more
36%

Casalarreina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Casalarreina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Casalarreina 0 – 2 Racing Rioja

Racing Rioja beat Casalarreina 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 13, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Soto in Haro.