Racing Rioja 4–0 Calasancio: Result & Stats

Racing Rioja

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Calasancio

12/20/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 10Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Racing Rioja65%

×Draw20%

Calasancio15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Racing RiojaExpected goals in this matchCalasancio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.86

Racing Rioja

2.06

Calasancio

0.86

Racing Rioja creates 140% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

1.80

creates per match

0.66

1.07

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Racing Rioja

1.80

Calasancio

0.66

allows per match

Racing Rioja

1.07

Calasancio

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Calasancio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Racing Rioja ↓

Calasancio →

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Racing Rioja or draw

85%

Racing Rioja or Calasancio

80%

Draw or Calasancio

35%

Winning margin

Racing Rioja wins by 2+

41%

Calasancio wins by 2+

Team goals

Racing Rioja 1+ goals

87%

Racing Rioja 2+ goals

61%

Racing Rioja 3+ goals

34%

Calasancio 1+ goals

58%

Calasancio 2+ goals

21%

Calasancio 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Racing Rioja (draw refunded)

81%

Calasancio (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Racing Rioja at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.07 · 30 matches

Calasancio away — creates 0.66, concedes 2.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Racing Rioja attack 1.80 + Calasancio defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.06

Calasancio attack 0.66 + Racing Rioja defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Racing Rioja scores more

65%

level

20%

Calasancio scores more

15%

Racing Rioja at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Racing Rioja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff