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Calasancio vs Racing Rioja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Calasancio
Calasancio
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Racing Rioja
Racing Rioja
3/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 21Estadio La Estrella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Calasancio24%
×Draw24%
Racing Rioja52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calasancio
1.09
Racing Rioja
1.73

Racing Rioja creates 59% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 30 away

creates per match

Calasancio
0.76
Racing Rioja
1.47

allows per match

Calasancio
2.00
Racing Rioja
1.43

finishing

Calasancio+0.00on par
Racing Rioja+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calasancio ↓

Racing Rioja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Calasancio or draw
48%
Calasancio or Racing Rioja
76%
Draw or Racing Rioja
76%

Winning margin

Calasancio wins by 2+
9%
Racing Rioja wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Calasancio 1+ goals
66%
Calasancio 2+ goals
30%
Calasancio 3+ goals
10%
Racing Rioja 1+ goals
82%
Racing Rioja 2+ goals
52%
Racing Rioja 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Calasancio (draw refunded)
31%
Racing Rioja (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calasancio at home — creates 0.76, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

Racing Rioja away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calasancio attack 0.76 + Racing Rioja defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.09

Racing Rioja attack 1.47 + Calasancio defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Calasancio scores more
24%
level
24%
Racing Rioja scores more
52%

Racing Rioja at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Racing Rioja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Calasancio 0–4 Racing Rioja

Racing Rioja beat Calasancio 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on March 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Estrella in Logroño.